How Africa Energy Intel treats evidence and economic values

AEI separates the economic meaning of a number from the number itself. Financing, project cost, EPC contract value, acquisition consideration, guarantees, commitments and programme targets are not added together as though they represented the same thing. Missing or malformed numeric fields remain unknown rather than being converted to zero.

Material monetary facts are classified by value type, scope, basis, currency, nominal or real basis, price year where supportable, event date, evidence date and verification state. Financing benchmarks count only economically compatible financing facts. CAPEX, EPC, offtake, M&A, guarantee and mobilisation values remain separate measures.

Where the legacy record does not establish what a headline value represents, AEI fails closed: the record remains visible for provenance but the value is excluded from strict financing totals until reviewed.

A URL attached to a record is provenance, not automatic proof of every field. Verified facts require field-level support or a traceable derived calculation. Analyst corrections are retained as append-only review events and propagate through the canonical record used by analytics, exports, briefs and decision tools.

Conflicting evidence is retained as a conflict. AEI does not choose a winner simply because one value was recorded later.

AEI distinguishes not researched, research pending, not found, public evidence found, verified, conflicting, no public disclosure identified after research, confirmed undisclosed and not applicable. “Not found” is not treated as proof that a term does not exist, and an undisclosed value is never represented as zero.

The public Market Pulse is directional, not an investment benchmark or forecast. It compares the latest complete monthly observations with the preceding complete month across capital activity, project development activity and policy or regulatory activity.

Incomplete months. A current month is excluded until complete, so partial-month activity is not compared with a full prior month. Revisions. Source corrections and newly verified records can revise historical readings. Material methodology changes will be versioned on this page.

Cross-project financial comparisons require compatible economic scope and evidence. Where a price year or other required comparison basis is missing, AEI does not manufacture one. Such observations are labelled as diligence gaps and excluded from strict benchmark calculations until they can be normalised defensibly.